PREDICTION OF THE RISK OF BANKRUPTCY AT THE ENTERPRISE

Abstract

Today, specialists are developing many models necessary for predicting the risk of bankruptcy of an organization. As a rule, as a result of forecasting, relevant recommendations are formed in order to improve the quality of forecasting, and even increase its effectiveness. The purpose of the article is to research forecasting the risk of bankruptcy at the enterprise. Factor models for assessing the risk of enterprise bankruptcy, analysis of the stages and methods of forecasting the economic process, the problem of enterprise bankruptcy on the territory of Ukraine, as well as the authors' definition of recommendations for overcoming enterprise bankruptcy were studied. In modern conditions, one of the most urgent and important tasks for any enterprise is the timely diagnosis of the probability of bankruptcy. The attention of scientists all over the world is increasingly focused on finding ways and methods to overcome the bankruptcy of enterprises. They increasingly analyze existing methods and describe their advantages and disadvantages. And also, scientists are trying to find modern ways to overcome problems. It is necessary to be aware of the risks in order to respond effectively to them. After having identified a weak spot or deficiency, it is important to take certain measures and develop strategies that will help to avoid problems in the future. At the same time, the enterprise can choose a strategy of avoiding or reducing risks, transferring or accepting them. Timely calculation of bankruptcy risks helps to avoid critical situations when the only way out will be liquidation of the enterprise and payment of debts. In addition, the level of bankruptcy of an enterprise is one of the most common indicators of the real state of the economy of any country. Bankruptcy of enterprises is a macroeconomic problem, it leads to a lot of negative consequences not only for the enterprise and its employees, but also for the state and society. While writing the work, the methods of the system approach, methods of statistical, economic and financial analysis, quantitative and structural analysis, expert analysis and modern methods of probabilistic modeling and forecasting of the financial state were used.