FOOD SECURITY OF UKRAINE AGAINST THE WAR BACKGROUND: ASSESSMENT AND TRENDS FORECASTING
Abstract
The paper substantiates the relevance of the study of the state's food security in the light of the global crisis phenomena of recent years, in particular, the global economic crisis and world economic recession, the pandemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 and the unprovoked war of Russia against Ukraine, which began in 2014 and turned into an active phase in the 2022 year. The study emphasized on the urgency of solving the problem of food security on a global scale, which is due to the permanent increase in the number of the planet's population, the increase in scale and the strengthening of the influence of global threats. The authors emphasized the importance of ensuring the state's food security, which contributes to ensuring its economic and national security. It is pointed out the need to change approaches to the study of food security, taking into account modern realities, in particular, military actions on the territory of Ukraine, which generally harm the state of food security of Ukraine and many countries of the world, since Ukraine was an important element in the global food supply chains. The article substantiates the use of the methodology for assessing the state of food security of the state, which allows for obtaining the most optimal value of this indicator. The specified methodology involves the calculation of four components and the integral index of the state's food security, in particular affordability, availability, safety and quality, sustainability and adaptation, and the calculation of the integral index of the state's food security. As a result of using the proposed methodology, the calculation of the integral index of food security in Ukraine was realized. The obtained results made it possible to compare them with similar indicators of the countries of the world and Europe, which made it possible to assess the state of the food security of Ukraine because of global trends. Forecasting of the state and trends of food security in Ukraine for the period up to 2027 has been carried out. In the study, the forecasting of trends in food security of the aggressor countries over the same period was implemented. The obtained results of the conducted research made it possible to form strategic security guidelines for the development of the state in conditions of war.
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