DYNAMICS OF WORLD WHEAT TRADE: ANALYTICAL ASSESSMENT

Abstract

In recent years, the threat to world food security has been growing under the pressure of modern global challenges. The leadership in shaping the trends of the food market conjuncture belongs to grains. The world's leading food crop in ensuring global food security is wheat, the global consumption of which has been steadily growing in the last decades. This fact requires an increase in the volume of its production and trade. The constant growth of competition in the world wheat market in the conditions of the strengthening of globalization processes requires the possession of adequate information about the state of the world wheat market and the dynamics of its production volumes. Such information can be obtained from the comprehensive analysis of export-import flows by applying economic-mathematical methods, which will eliminate available and prevent possible disproportions on the world wheat market. This article attempts to represent the possibility of the appliance of time series analysis methods and modern methods of analytical processing of economic statistical data to the assessment of the world wheat trade dynamics. The research hypothesis is the following: whether the principal components of the world wheat market have the same dynamics or are different in the growth trajectory. Based on the analysis of data from the FAOSTAT database of the absolute volumes of world export and import of wheat, the growing nature of the indicators was confirmed, which corresponds to the exponential law of development of the global wheat trade. The study of the absolute chain increases/decreases of indicators of world export and import of wheat showed their cyclic nature, which indicates the presence of frequent fluctuations in the global wheat market with different amplitudes. The simulation of world wheat trade dynamics based on the data of the total annual volumes of world imports and exports proved that re-export and re-import operations do not have a decisive influence on the world wheat market. Using the tools of the STATISTICA 12 software, regression modelling of the trends of volumes of world export and import of wheat have been performed. The analysis resulted in the possibility of balancing supply and demand in the world market of wheat.